DEPENDENCE RESEARCH / VOL. 01
TailPool homeThesis
01 / THE THESIS

Diversification ends
where dependencies begin.

Five assets can still be one bet.

An issuer, a bridge and an oracle can look separate on a balance sheet while sharing a custodian, a liquidity source or a failure trigger. Counting risks independently can hide the concentration that matters most.

TailPool starts with those relationships. The research asks what happens to the whole pool when infrastructure fails together—and what premium compensates for that exposure.

01 / DEPENDENCIES

Trace the
common cause.

Map how issuer, bridge, oracle, custody and liquidity risks connect.

02 / DISTRIBUTION

Look into
the worst 1%.

Simulate joint losses and measure the capital consumed in the tail.

03 / PRICING

Charge for
the connection.

Compare correlated and independent scenarios before setting a cover premium.